23.02.2012

Bulgaria is not expected to fall back into a recession in 2012, states the EC Interim Forecast for EU Member States published today. The EC revised down as a whole its forecast for EU Member States economic growth estimating a recession in the Euro area of 0.3%.

Despite the downward forecast the EC places Bulgaria fifth in respect of economic growth in 2012. GDP growth is expected to remain rather low in the first half of 2012, but to accelerate gradually thereafter in line with economic activity picking up in the EU as a whole. The forecasted economic growth for Bulgaria is 1.4%, which is by 0.9 pp. less than projected in the EC autumn forecast. 

The EC document uses updated data for the Bulgarian economy. It points out current account surplus, stability of the banking sector and public finances, which do not face major adjustment needs in the longer term. It further points out that a gradual pick up of domestic demand and stabilization of the labor market are expected.  

According to the forecast economic growth will be negative in nine EU Member States, zero in one and positive in 17 among which is Bulgaria.