01.11.2022

Based on the preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) budget balance as of October 2022 is expected to be a deficit of BGN 20 million. On a monthly basis, a deficit of BGN 1.0 billion is expected for October, with the reasons behind the forecast excess of expenditures over revenues on a monthly basis being the higher expenditures in line with the annual estimates, as well as the greater amount of tax credits refunded to businesses under the VAT Law. An increase in the social expenditures (including in view of the second round of the pension increase approved in the summer), capital expenditures, maintenance costs, etc. is observed in October.

Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:

As of June 2022, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 50,232 million (84.2% of the annual estimates) and increase by BGN 8,099 million (19.2%) compared to those reported in the same period of 2021. CFP tax revenues grow by BGN 4,616 million in nominal terms compared to October 2021, non-tax revenues grow by BGN 3,450 million, while grant and donation proceeds (mostly EU programme and fund grants) are close to those reported for the same period of the previous year.

It should be noted that implementing §24 of the Transitional and Final Provisions of the 2022 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law, since July public enterprises from the energy sector have been making payments to the budget of the Electricity System Security Fund which are used to cover the expenditures under Article 36b(1)(4) of the Energy Law. Non-tax revenues therefore report a growth as no such payments were made in 2021. Similarly, in terms of the expenditures for subsidies under the budget of the Electricity System Security Fund, pursuant to §23 of the 2022 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law compensations are paid to non-household end customers of electricity outside the regulated market, which should also be taken into account when comparing the expenditures with the same period of the previous year.

As of June 2022, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 50,252 million (76.3% of the annual estimates). For comparison, CFP expenditures as of October 2021 amount to BGN 41,406 million.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31 October 2022, amounts to BGN 1,355 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidated Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units as of October 2022 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of November 2022.