09.12.2010

For five consecutive quarters the Economic Activity Indicator (EAI) is registering improvement and now it is already slightly positive. This is one of the key conclusions for Q3 2010 in the regular quarterly publication "Indicator of Economic Activity in Bulgaria, #4/2010". The analysis is published in the Ministry of Finance's website, in subcategory Economic Analysis and Forecasts/Macroeconomic Analysis. The upward progress of EAI is mainly due to increased external demand as a result of the economic upswing in our trade partners and its respective positive effect on the country's industrial production. The analysis shows that domestic demand remains contracted and restrains economic activity growth in the country.

The publication is prepared by the macroeconomic analysts of Economic Analysis and Forecasts Directorate within the Ministry of Finance. It is aimed at presenting in summary the current state of affairs in the Bulgarian economy and at estimating its cyclical and long-term component development. The EAI is calculated based on a dynamic factor model and is made of eight macroeconomic variables for the internal and external economic environment.

You can find the previous editions of "Indicator of Economic Activity in Bulgaria" on http://www.aeaf.minfin.bg/en/publications.php?l=2&c=148.