01.11.2021

Based on the preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) budget balance as of end-October 2021 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 725 million (0.6% of the projected GDP). On a monthly basis, the CFP balance for October is expected to be a deficit of BGN 343 million. The higher expenditures made in October are related to some social and economic measures aimed at minimising the implications from the crisis, including the payment of a monthly pension allowance of BGN 120 for all retired persons, as well as other expenditures under the approved measures, which, together with the traditionally higher expenditures in autumn and winter, results in a current deficit for October.

Expenditures are expected to grow considerably in the last months of the year and in addition to the traditionally higher capital expenditures and the winter season ones, the majority of the additional expenditures for fighting the pandemic, social support, prevention of migration pressure on the borders, supporting businesses and other priority measures approved by the National Assembly in the middle of September with the Law amending the Law on the 2021 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria will be funded.

Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:

As of October 2021, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to amount to BGN 42,081 million (83.2% of the revised annual budget), and, compared to the same period of 2020, there is an increase in the tax and non-tax revenues of about BGN 5.7 billion, while grant proceeds increase by BGN 0.1 billion compared to those reported for the ten months of the previous year.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, are expected to amount to BGN 41,356 million as of October 2021, which accounts for 75.0% of the annual estimates. For comparison, CFP expenditures for the same period of 2020 amount to BGN 35,606 million. The considerable growth of expenditures as of October 2021, as compared to the same period of the previous year, is related, on the one hand, with the lower base in 2020 when considerably smaller expenditures for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic were reported, while as of October 2021 those expenditures are considerable, and, on the other hand, with the income and social policies and the higher administration costs set in the Law on the 2021 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria.

 Looking from the perspective of economic elements, there is a considerable growth in the social and health insurance expenditures. As to pension expenditures, almost BGN 1.2 billion have been spent on pension allowance for all retired persons (BGN 50 for January through September and BGN 120 for October). Along with that, pension expenditures are also influenced by the increased amount of the minimum length-of-service and old-age pension, of the maximum pension as from the start of the year, the baseline effect of the pension increase in July 2020, as well as the increase in July 2021. There is an increase in the health insurance expenditures related to the higher expenses for tackling the pandemic and the arrangements for financing health establishments in the context of the emergency epidemic situation: expenses for medicines, tests, consumables and protective equipment, expenditures supporting front-line staff in the fight against COVID-19 (supplementary monthly remuneration of BGN 1,000), payment to medical staff for vaccination of the population against COVID-19, monthly allowance of BGN 600 for doctors, BGN 360 for nurses and midwives and BGN 120 for hospital attendants, etc. The payments under the 60/40 measure, the 80/20 measure, the Keep Me measure, the Turnover Support for SMEs Affected by the Temporary Anti-Epidemic Measures measure administered by the NRA, etc. have contributed to the growing subsidy expenses for non-financial enterprises.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of October 2021, amounts to BGN 1,228 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidate Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units as of October 2021 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of November 2021.