31.08.2021

Based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units’ budgets, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of July 2021 is positive, amounting to BGN 705.2 million, or 0.6% of the projected GDP, and is formed by an excess of revenues over expenditures of BGN 948.8 million under the national budget and a deficit of BGN 243.7 million under EU funds.

The improvement in the revenue side of the budget continues in July and compared to the same month of the previous year the nominal growth of the overall revenues amounts to around BGN 0.66 billion, or 17.1 per cent. Month-on-month, the main contribution for this is attributed to tax and social security and insurance revenues which report a nominal growth of BGN 0.5 billion (17.2 per cent), with the most considerable improvement being registered for proceeds from VAT, CIT, social security and health insurance contributions, PIT, tax on dividends, liquidation quotas and income of resident and non-resident legal persons, excise duties, etc. As to non-tax revenues, the most significant growth in July compared to the same month of 2020 is reported for greenhouse gas emission allowance revenues, state and municipal charge revenues, etc.

CFP revenues, grants and donations as of July 2021 amount to BGN 29,253.5 million, or 61.5% of the annual estimates. Compared to the same period of the previous year, proceeds as of July 2021 rise by almost BGN 4.0 million, or by 15.8%. The growth in comparison to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which have grown by BGN 4.3 million, whereas grant proceeds have dropped by BGN 0.3 million.  When comparing non-tax revenues one needs to take into account that in April 2021 there are one-off revenues, which are the initial concession fee from the Sofia Airport concession.

CFP tax proceeds, including revenues from social security contributions, total BGN 22,758.9 million, which accounts for 61.5% of the tax revenues planned for the year. Tax and social security contribution proceeds grow by BGN 2.7 billion (13,5%) compared to those reported for the same period of the previous year, forming 77.8% of the overall CFP proceeds for the period.

Direct tax revenues amount to BGN 4,466.8 million, or 64.0% of those planned for the year. Indirect tax proceeds amount to BGN 10,474.7 million (61.3% of the annual estimates), with VAT proceeds amounting to BGN 7,175.2 million (64.0% of those planned), excise duty revenues amounting to BGN 3,117.9 million (55.9% of the estimates), and customs duty proceeds amounting to BGN 149.5 million (63.8% as against the annual estimates). Proceeds from other taxes, including property and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 914.1 million, or execution of 71.2% of the annual estimates. Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 6,903.3 million, which accounts for 59.0% of the estimates for the year.

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 4,946.3 million, which accounts for 75.0% of the annual estimates, and are mostly formed by state, municipal and legal expense revenues, rents, concession revenues, greenhouse gas emission allowance revenues, etc.

Grant and donation proceeds amount to BGN 1,548.3 million.

CFP expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for July 2021, amount to BGN 28,548.3 million, which accounts for 54.4% of the annual estimates. For comparison, the CFP expenditures as of July 2020 amount to BGN 23,542.7 million. The considerable growth of expenditures as of July 2021, as compared to the same period of the previous year, is related, on the one hand, with the lower base in 2020 when considerably smaller expenditures for fighting COVID-19 were reported, while as of July 2021 those expenditures are considerable, and, on the other hand, with the income and social policies and the higher administration costs set in the Law on the 2021 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria.

Looking from the perspective of economic elements, there is a considerable growth in the social and health insurance expenditures. As to pension expenditures, BGN 739.2 million have been spent for a monthly allowance of BGN 50 to the pensions of all pensioners for January through July. In parallel to that pension expenditures are also influenced by the increased amount of the minimum old-age pension and of the maximum pension as from the start of the year, the baseline effect of the pension increase in July 2020, as well as the increase in July 2021. There is an increase in health insurance expenditures related to higher expenses for tackling the pandemic and arrangements for financing health establishments in the context of the emergency epidemic situation, including expenses for medicines, tests, protective equipment, expenditures supporting front-line staff in the fight against COVID-19 (supplementary monthly remuneration of BGN 1,000), payment to medical staff for vaccination of the population against COVID-19, monthly allowance of BGN 600 for doctors, BGN 360 for nurses and midwives and BGN 120 for hospital attendants, etc. The payments under the 60/40 measure, the 80/20 measure, the Keep Me measure, the Turnover Support for SMEs Affected by the Temporary Anti-Epidemic Measures measure administered by the NRA, etc. have contributed to the growing subsidy expenses for non-financial enterprises.

Capital expenditures include a transaction made in July in relation to the recovery of state budget funds from the foreign fund account of the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works, which is a refunded expenditure in itself and is recorded as a reduction of state budget expenditures on a cash basis.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 27,287.2 million, which accounts for 54.4% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditures amount to BGN 25,658.9 million. Capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 1,606.5 million. The current and capital transfers to other countries amount to BGN 21.8 million. Interest payments amount to BGN 397.7 million, or 60.5% of those planned for 2021.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31.07.2021 amounts to BGN 863.5 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources.

The fiscal reserve as of 31.07.2021 is BGN 9.33 billion, including BGN 8.95 billion of fiscal reserve deposits in the BNB and in banks and BGN 0.38 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditures, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme implementation data as of 31 July 2021 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, in Statistics section. The statistics is accompanied by an Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the Main Indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, which represents a short analysis of the performance of the key budget parameters on a consolidated level and by constituent budgets.