01.11.2016

Based on the monthly data of first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-September 2016 is positive, amounting to BGN 3,362.2 million (3.8% of forecast GDP) and is formed by a surplus under the national budget of BGN 1,947.4 million and a surplus under EU funds of BGN 1,414.9 million. For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN 632.6 million (0.7% of GDP) was reported for the nine months of 2015, which means that, as a relative share of GDP, the budget stance has improved by 3.1 percentage points. The factors for the improvement in the budget stance continue to be the higher revenues and the lower rate of utilization of capital expenditures. In addition to the good national budget revenue parameters, the EU fund accounts also influence the current CFP balance, with the excess of revenues over expenditures there accounting for 1.6 % of the forecast GDP.

The CFP revenues and grants in September 2016 stand at BGN 25,650.3 million, or 77.7% of the annual estimates. Compared to the nine months of 2015, revenues and grants have grown by BGN 1,488.1 million (6.2%). The growth as compared to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues, which have risen by BGN 1,905.2 million, while grants (funds reimbursed by the European Commission) are lower. Grant proceeds, mostly end-2015 certified expenditures reimbursed under the EU operational programmes and funds for the old programming period 2007-2013, and advance payments received by the Commission for the new programming period 2014-2020, amount to BGN 2,325.6 million, which is 91.4% of the annual estimates.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security and health insurance contributions, total BGN 20,105.6 million, which is 77.4% of the annual plans. Compared to September 2015 tax revenues have risen by 8.3% (BGN 1,537.1 million) in nominal terms.

Revenues from direct taxes amount to BGN 3,574.6 million, or 76.3% of the annual estimates, growing by BGN 309.2 million (9.5%) as compared to September 2015.

Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 10,384.9 million, or 78.3% of the 2016 Annual Budget Law plans. Compared to end-September 2015, the proceeds in this group have grown by BGN 837.3 million (8.8%). VAT proceeds for the nine-month period amount to BGN 6,614.3 million, or 78.7% of those planned for the year. Compared to the previous year, VAT revenues have risen by BGN 531.7 million. The amount of the non-refunded VAT as of end-September is BGN 126.7 million. There is also a growth in the excise duty revenues which amount to BGN 3,617.9 million (77.5% of the annual plans), while as against September 2015 they have grown by 8.6%, or BGN 285.3 million. Custom duties revenues are BGN 129.9 million or 86.6% of the annual plan.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 780.1 million, or 85.6% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 5,366.0 million, or 75.2% of those planned for the year. Compared to the previous year these revenues have risen by 5.6% (BGN 285.0 million) in nominal terms 

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 3,219.2 million, or 71.8% of the annual plans, which is by BGN 368.1 million (12.9%) more compared to end-September 2015.

The expenditures under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 22,288.1 million as of end-September 2016, which is 64.0% of the annual plans. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP as of end-September 2015 amounted to BGN 23,529.7 million. The lower absorption of expenditures in the nine months of the year is mostly linked to a delay in some capital expenditures (mostly EU fund accounts), which is due, on the one hand, to the low absorption at the initial stage of project implementation during the new programming period 2014-2020, and, on the other hand, to the shifting of the majority of capital expenditures to the last quarter of the year due to some technological and procedural factors.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 21,015.0 million, which is 64.4% of the annual plans. Non-interest current expenditures as of end-September 2016 amount to BGN 19,482.6 million, or 73.5% of the annual estimates, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 1,532.4 million, or 25.1% of the plans for 2016. Interest payments amount to BGN 661.6 million, or 82.5% of those planned for 2016.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of September 2016, amounts to BGN 611.5 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.

Fiscal reserve as of 30.09.2016 is BGN 14.3 billion, including BGN 12.8 billion deposits in BNB and banks and BGN 1.5 billion receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme performance data as of 30 September 2016 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance in Statistics section. The statistical data are accompanied by an Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the main indicators of the consolidated fiscal programme, which presents a short analysis of the performance of the key budget parameters on a consolidated level and by constituent budgets.