29.04.2021

Based on preliminary data and estimates the budget balance of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) for the first four months of 2021 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 115.4 million (0.1 % of the forecast GDP). Only for April on a monthly basis the MoF expects a surplus of approximately BGN 735.

Key CFP parameters on the basis of preliminary data and estimates:

As of April 2021, CFP revenues, grants and donations are expected to be BGN 16,660.4 million (35 % of the annual estimate), registering a growth of nearly BGN 2.0 billion as against the first four months of 2020. The growth as compared to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which increased by BGN 2.3 billion, while the receipts in terms of grants decreased by BGN 0.3 billion. Tax revenues are influenced by the legislative amendments made to the deadlines for submitting the 2020 annual tax returns under the Corporate Income Tax Law, as well as for payment of the corporate income tax, the tax on expenses, the tax on revenues of budget enterprises, as well as the tax due on vessels operation activity (from 31 March to 30 June 2021). It should be noted that in 2020, given the quick measures taken at the outbreak of the pandemic, the Corporate Income Tax Law deadline was also extended; however, some of the tax liable persons had already submitted their 2019 returns and had paid an equalising corporate tax payment in the set period, i.e. 31 March 2020. When comparing non-tax revenues and VAT revenues, it should also be taken into account that in April 2021 planned revenues of BGN 660 million, VAT included, with a one-off effect for the year were received; this is the initial concession fee paid to the state from the concession of Sofia Airport.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, as of April 2021 are expected to amount to BGN 16,545 million, which is 31.5% of the annual estimates. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP for the same period of 2020 amounted to BGN 12,991.8 million. The significant growth of expenditures in the first four months of 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year is related, on the one hand, to the lower base in 2020 when the expenditures on addressing the COVID-19 pandemic were significantly lower, while as of April 2021 these expenditures are significant, and, on the other hand, to the income policy and the policies in the social sphere laid down in the 2021 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law.

Considered by economic elements, the most significant increase is reported in social and health insurance expenditures. In the area of pension expenditures, nearly BGN 420 million were spent on payment of an allowance of BGN 50 to the pensions of all pensioners for the months from January to April. In addition, pension expenditures were also influenced by the increase in the amount of the minimum contributory-service and retirement-age pension and of the maximum amount of the pension as from the beginning of the year, as well as by a baseline effect of the increase in pensions in July 2020. In the area of health insurance expenditures, these report an increase related to higher expenditures on tackling the pandemic and arrangements for financing health establishments in the context of the emergency epidemic situation, including expenditures on vaccines, medicines, tests, consumables and protective equipment, funds to support front-line staff in the fight against COVID-19 (supplementary monthly remuneration of BGN 1,000), payment to medical staff for vaccination of the population against COVID-19, monthly allowance of BGN 600 for doctors, BGN 360 for nurses and midwives and BGN 120 for hospital attendants, etc. The payments under the 60/40 measure, the 80/20 measure, the “Keep Me” measure, the “Working Capital Support For SMEs Affected by the Temporary Anti-Epidemic Measures” measure administered by the NRA, etc., have contributed to the growing expenditures on subsidies for non-commercial enterprises. Capital expenditures have also increased in comparison to the same period of the previous year, which is due to payments related to investment projects of the Bulgarian army, road infrastructure sites, etc.

The part of Republic of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid from the central budget as of April 2021, amounts to BGN 574.9 million, which complies with the current legislation in the area of EU own resources.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the execution of the state budget and the key indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme based on data from the monthly reports on the cash performance of the budgets of the first-level spending units as of April 2021 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of May 2021.