01.02.2016

Based on the monthly data of first-level spending units, the revenues and grants under the 2015 Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) amount to BGN 32,205.1 million, or 101.8% of the revised annual estimates. Compared to 2014, revenues and grants have risen by BGN 2,796.0 million, or by 9.5%. In structural terms, tax revenues have grown by BGN 1,828.6 million, or by 7.9%, non-tax revenues - by BGN 245.1 million (7.1%), while grant proceeds (mainly funds reimbursed by the European Commission) - by BGN 722.3 million (24.7%). As a share of GDP, Consolidated Fiscal Programme revenues and grants have grown from 35.2% in 2014 to 37.5% in 2015, which is an increase by 2.3 percentage points.

The CFP tax proceeds (including revenues from social security contributions) total BGN 24,856.4 million, which is 100.5% of the revised estimates, while compared to the initial estimates of the 2015 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law, the execution is 103.5 per cent. All major taxes and social security contributions in the group of tax revenues register a growth in comparison to the previous year, with this growth being most substantial for the proceeds from indirect taxes, social security and health insurance contributions, and other taxes.

Revenues from direct taxes amount to BGN 4,591.7 million, which is BGN 315.8 million, or 7.4%, more than the previous year as a result of the proceeds from corporate income taxes and personal income taxes.

Revenues from indirect taxes amount to BGN 12,450.5 million, which is a growth by BGN 969.7 million, or by 8.4%, in comparison to the previous year. Revenues from VAT amount to BGN 7,740.0 million, rising by BGN 475.6 million, or by 6.5%, in comparison to 2014. The non-refunded tax credits as of 30.12.2015 amount to BGN 128.5 million. Revenues from excise duties amount to BGN 4,525.0 million, which is a growth by 12.0% in comparison to 2014. Revenues from customs duties stand at BGN 159.0 million, registering a growth by 3.8% as against 2014. Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 867.7 million, rising by 5.5% in comparison to 2014. Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions amount to BGN 6,946.5 million, which is a growth by 7.7% in comparison to the previous year.

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 3,705.0 million, or 102.4% of the annual estimates. 

Proceeds from grants received domestically or from abroad, including EU grants, amount to BGN 3,643.7 million, which accounts for 110.2% of the estimates for the year.

The Consolidate Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for 2015, amount to BGN 34,678.0 million, which accounts for 100.4% of the annual estimates. Compared to the previous year, the overall CFP expenditures have risen by BGN 2,196.0 million, or by 6.8%. In structural terms, the growth is most significant for capital expenditures which have risen by BGN 1.9 billion in nominal terms. This is mostly due to the higher investment costs under the operational programmes, the Rural Development Programme and the Fisheries Programme over the last year in order to finalise the payments under EU-funded projects in the 2007-2013 programming period.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 33,033.0 million, which accounts for 101.1% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditures for 2015 amount to BGN 26,190.4 million, or 99.8% of the estimates for the year, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 6,842.7 million, or 106.6%, as compared to the 2015 State Budget of the Republic Bulgaria Law estimates. Interest payments amount to BGN 698.6 million, or 80.1% of those planned for 2015.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget in 2015, amounts to BGN 946.4 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.

The general government deficit according to the ESA 2010 methodology promises to be below 2.5% of the projected GDP in accordance with the preliminary forecasts at end-2015. In comparison to the 2015 target set in the Convergence Programme of the Republic of Bulgaria 2015-2018 for a deficit not exceeding 2.8% of GDP, a better-than-planned consolidation effort is expected for 2015, which substantiates the pursued consistent policy for a gradual deficit reduction in the medium term. This outcome is extremely important as the budget execution had to face some serious challenges mainly with reference to the successful closure of projects funded by the operational programmes, the Rural Development Programme and the Fisheries Programme for the 2007-2013 programming programme. Thanks to the active measures taken by the revenue administrations to improve revenue collection, a nominal growth of CFP revenues of BGN 2.8 billion is reported in the past year as against 2014, with the bulk of it (BGN 2.1 billion) coming from tax and non-tax proceeds under the national budget. The improvement in the revenue parameters has allowed addressing of the expenditure pressures mostly with reference to the EU programmes and funds, including national co-financing and financial shortage for some of the budgetary systems, thus avoiding a deterioration of the budget balance as against the fiscal target.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme deficit on a cash basis amounts to BGN 2,472.9 million (2.9% of the projected GDP) for 2015. It is formed by a national budget deficit of BGN 2,195.1 million and a deficit of EU funds of BGN 277.8 million. For comparison, the CFP budget balance for 2014 was negative, amounting to BGN 3,072.9 million (3.7% of GDP), i.e. the budget stance, as a relative share of GDP, has improved by 0.8 percentage points.

The fiscal reserve as of 31.12.2015 is BGN 7.9 billion, including BGN 6.8 billion of deposits in BNB and banks and BGN 1.1 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

Data on Consolidated Fiscal Programme implementation as of 31 December 2015 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, in Statistics section.