30.04.2020

Based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units, CFP revenues, grants and donations as of March 2020 amount to BGN 10,977.0 million, or 23.4% of the annual estimates^[1]. Compared to the same period of the previous year, they grow by BGN 119.0 million in nominal terms. Tax and non-tax proceeds register a drop by BGN 153.6 million (1.5%), and grant and donation proceeds (mostly EU programme and fund grants) are by BGN 272.6 million, or 48.5%, more than at end-March 2020.

It should be taken into account that the negative effects on the revenue side caused by the measures aimed to fight the pandemic will be seen in the budget implementation parameters with some delay. In this sense, the revenue parameters as of end-March are not yet influenced considerably by the coronavirus crisis and reflect the most immediate implications of the measures taken and the altered macroeconomic environment. In structural terms, as far as direct taxes are concerned, the greatest impact comes from extending the deadlines under the Corporate Income Tax Law, which postpones a substantial part of the proceeds usually collected in March for June, while indirect taxes report a delay in VAT-on-imports revenues, excise duty revenues, etc.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security contributions, total BGN 8,580.6 million, which accounts for 23.0% of the tax revenues planned for the year.

Direct tax revenues amount to BGN 1,308.6 million, or 18.2% of those planned for the year. The performance of corporate income revenues in this group is lower as a result of extending the 2020 deadlines under the Corporate Income Tax Law with the Law on the Measures and Actions in a State of Emergency which was declared by a decision of the National Assembly of 13 March 2020.

Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 4,328.2 million, which accounts for 24.4% of the annual estimates. VAT proceeds amount to BGN 2,940.9 million, or 25.1 % of those planned. The state of emergency declared in the country has not yet influenced considerably the VAT proceeds at the end of Q1 of 2020. The deteriorated macroeconomic indicators for consumption, imports and exports and the oil prices are expected to have an adverse impact on the revenues from this type of tax in the coming months. Excise duty revenues amount to BGN 1,320.6 million, or 23.2% of the annual estimates. As far as excise duties are concerned, the COVID-19 crisis is expected to have an impact mostly on the consumption of fuels and alcoholic beverages, which will influence the proceeds in the following reporting periods. Customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 54.6 million, or 23.0% of the annual estimates.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 294.7 million, or 24.0% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 2,649.1 million, which accounts for 23.6% of the estimates for the year.

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 1,561.9 million, or 23.0% of the annual estimates.

Grant and donation proceeds amount to BGN 834.4 million.

CFP expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for March 2020, amount to BGN 9,550.4 million, which accounts for 20.4% of the annual estimates. For comparison, the CFP expenditures as of March 2019 amount to BGN 9,053.5 million. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the nominal increase is mainly due to the higher amount of social payments (a baseline effect from the pension increase in July 2019) and the higher maintenance expenditures, staff costs, capital expenditures, etc. As regards the measures implementing the Law on the Measures and Actions in a State of Emergency declared by a decision of the National Assembly of 13 March 2020, healthcare expenditures were mostly financed in the reporting period. The most urgent expenditures related to securing protective garment, disinfectants, medical products, etc., for the medical staff at the front of the fight with the contagion. The majority of these costs were provided within the first-level spending unit budgets.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 8,857.0 million, which accounts for 19.9% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditures as of March 2020 amount to BGN 8,280.2 million, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 569.1 million. The current and capital transfers to other countries amount to BGN 7.7 million. Interest payments amount to BGN 319.8 million, or 48.8% of those planned for 2020.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31.03.2020, amounts to BGN 373.6 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The CFP budget balance on a cash basis for March 2020 is surplus, amounting to BGN 1,426.5 million. It is formed by the excess of national budget revenues over expenditures of BGN 1,059.8 million and of EU funds of BGN 366.8 million.

As of 31.03.2020, the fiscal reserve amounts to BGN 10.3 billion, including BGN 9.9 billion of fiscal reserve deposits in the BNB and in banks and BGN 0.4 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme implementation data as of 31 March 2020 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, in Statistics section. The statistics is accompanied by an Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the Main Indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, which represents a short analysis of the performance of the key budget parameters on a consolidated level and by constituent budgets.

[1] The paper uses data under the 2020 State Budget Law estimates before the budget revision in April 2020 because the Law amending the 2020 State Budget of Republic of Bulgaria Law entered into force on 9 April 2020.