31.08.2016

Based on the monthly data of first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-July 2016 is positive, amounting to BGN 3,279.3 million (3.7% of forecast GDP) and is formed by a surplus under the national budget of BGN 1,752.3 million and a surplus under EU funds of BGN 1,527.1 million. For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN 789.5 million (0.9% of GDP) was reported in the first seven months of 2015, which means that, as a relative share of GDP, the budget stance has improved by 2.8 percentage points. The factors for the improvement in the budget stance continue to be the higher revenues and the cutting of expenditures in comparison to the same period of the previous year. In addition to the good national budget revenue parameters, the EU fund accounts also influence the current CFP balance, with the excess of revenues over expenditures there accounting for 1.7% of the forecast GDP.

The CFP revenues and grants in July 2016 stand at BGN 20,549.1 million, or 62.2% of the annual estimates. Compared to end-July 2015, revenues and grants have grown by BGN 1,529.6 million (8.0%). The growth as compared to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which have risen by BGN 1,603.4 million, while grant proceeds (funds reimbursed by the European Commission) have dropped by BGN 73.8 million. Nevertheless, the execution of grant proceeds as against the annual estimates is good, with domestic and foreign grant proceeds, mostly end-2015 certified expenditures reimbursed under the EU operational programmes and funds for the old programming period 2007-2013, and advance payments received by the Commission for the new programming period 2014-2020, amounting to BGN 2,186.3 million, which is 85.9% of the annual estimates.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security and health insurance contributions, total BGN 15,743.5 million, which is 60.6% of the annual plans. Compared to July 2015 tax revenues have risen by 9.1% (BGN 1,308.3 million) in nominal terms. In structural terms the highest growth is reported in indirect tax revenues.

Revenues from direct taxes amount to BGN 2,968.6 million, or 63.4% of the annual estimates, growing by BGN 229.0 million (8.4%) as compared to July 2015.

Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 7,967.0 million, or 60.1% of the 2016 Annual Budget Law plans. Compared to the previous year, the proceeds in this group have grown by BGN 801.3 million (11.2%). The VAT proceeds in the first seven months of the year amount to BGN 5,088.8 million, or 60.5% of the planned for the year. Compared to the previous year these revenues have risen by BGN 441.8 million. The amount of the non-refunded VAT as of end-July is BGN 135.9 million. There is also a growth in the excise duty revenues which amount to BGN 2,759.1 million (59.1% of the annual plans), while as against July 2015 they have grown by 14.3%, or BGN 344.7 million. Customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 99.4 million, or 66.3% of the planned for the year.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 664.5 million, or 72.9% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 4,143.4 million, or 58.1% of those planned for the year. Compared to the previous year these revenues have risen by 5.1% (BGN 201.5 million) in nominal terms 

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 2,619.3 million, or 58.4% of the annual plans, which is by BGN 295.0 million (12.7%) more compared to end-July 2015.

The expenditures under the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 17,269.8 million as of end-July 2016, which is 49.6% of the annual plans. For comparison, the expenditures under the CFP as of end-July 2015 amounted to BGN 18,230.1 million. The lower absorption of expenditures in the first seven months of the year is mostly linked to a delay in some capital expenditures (mostly EU fund accounts), which is due, on the one hand, to the low absorption at the initial stage of project implementation during the new programming period 2014-2020, and, on the other hand, to the shifting of the majority of capital expenditures to the last quarter of the year due to some technological and procedural factors.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 16,277.7 million, which is 49.9% of the annual plans. Non-interest current expenditures as of end-July 2016 amount to BGN 15,201.0 million, or 57.3% of the annual estimates, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 1,076.7 million, or 17.6% of the plans for 2016. Interest payments amount to BGN 525.0 million, or 65.4% of those planned for 2016.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of July 2016, amounts to BGN 467.0 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.

Fiscal reserve as of 31.07.2016 is BGN 14,5 billion, including BGN 12.9 billion deposits in BNB and banks and BGN 1.9 billion receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc. 

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme performance data as of 31 July 2016 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance in Statistics section.