01.12.2017

Based on the monthly reports from first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-October 2017 is positive, amounting to BGN 2,493.4 million, or 2.5% of the projected GDP, and is formed by a national budget surplus of BGN 2,678.7 million and by a EU funds deficit of BGN 185.3 million. The national budget balance reports an improvement in structural terms as compared to the same period of 2016 mainly due to the growth of tax revenues, including from social security and health insurance contributions, while the balance of EU fund accounts has deteriorated this year due to a baseline effect in 2016 related to the EU grants reimbursed to Bulgaria at the beginning of 2016 for expenditures incurred at the end of 2015 when was the peak of project payments under the previous 2007 – 2013 programming period.

The CFP revenues and grants in October 2017 stand at BGN 29,166.7 million, or 82.3% of the annual estimates. Compared to the same period of the previous year, tax and non-tax revenues have risen by BGN 2,233.4 million, or by 8.7%, with grant proceeds being lower.

Tax proceeds, including revenues from social security contributions, total BGN 24,469.0 million, which accounts for 87.3% of the revenues planned for the year. Compared to the data as of October 2016, tax proceeds have risen in nominal terms by 9.7%, or by BGN 2,160.4 million.

Direct tax revenues amount to BGN 4,398.1 million, or 86.4% of the estimates planned for the year, growing by BGN 423.0 million (10.6%).

Indirect tax revenues amount to BGN 12,296.4 million, which accounts for 87.7% of the annual estimates. Compared to the data as of October 2016, proceeds in this group have grown by BGN 825.1 million, or by 7.2%. VAT proceeds amount to BGN 7,923.7 million, or 90.2% of those planned. Compared to the previous year, VAT revenues have risen by BGN 647.7 million, or by 8.9%. The amount of non-refunded VAT as of end-October 2017 is BGN 56.9 million. The excise duty revenues amount to BGN 4,183.1 million, or 83.0% of the annual estimates. Customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 158.4 million, or 95.4% of the estimates for the year.

Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN 905.8 million, or 91.4% of the annual estimates.

Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 6,868.7 million, which accounts for 86.6% of the estimates for the year. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the revenues from social security contributions have risen by BGN 865.7 million, or by 14.4%, in nominal terms. 

Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 3,577.8 million, which accounts for 75.2% of the annual estimates.

Grant revenues amount to BGN 1,120.0 million, or 42.4% of those planned for the year.

CFP expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for October 2017, amount to BGN 26,673.3 million, which accounts for 72.5% of the annual estimates. For comparison, CFP expenditures for the same period of 2016 amount to BGN 24,854.6 million. The higher expenditures, as compared to end-October 2016, are mainly due to the greater amount of social security and health insurance payments, the baseline effect of pension expenditures since their increases as from July 2016 and July 2017, the two-step increase of the minimum pension in 2017 (as from July and October), as well as the higher subsidy expenditures and the higher staff costs, including due to the increase in social security contribution expenditures linked to the higher contribution to the Pensions to Persons Pursuant to Article 69 Fund of the Social Insurance Code by 20 pps as against 2016.

Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 25,190.7 million, which accounts for 72.9% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditure as of October 2017 amount to BGN 23,513.4 million, or 83.0% of the estimates for the year, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN 1,677.3 million, or 27.0% of the 2017 State Budget of the Republic Bulgaria Law estimates. Interest payments amount to BGN 736.4 million, or 89.1% of those planned for 2017.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31 October 2017, amounts to BGN 746.2 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The fiscal reserve {1}  as of 31 October 2017 is BGN 12.0 billion, including BGN 11.4 billion of fiscal reserve deposits in the BNB and in banks and BGN 0.6 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

The Consolidated Fiscal Programme implementation data as of 31 October 2017 are published on the website of the Ministry of Finance, in the Statistics section. The statistics is accompanied by an Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the Main Indicators of the Consolidated Fiscal Programme, which represents a short analysis of the performance of the key budget parameters on a consolidated level and by constituent budgets.

{1} The scope of the fiscal reserve indicator is in line with §1, item 41 of the Additional Provisions of the Public Finance Law.