01.11.2018

Based on the preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of October 2018 is expected to be positive, amounting to BGN 2,862.2 million (2.6% of the projected GDP).

It should be noted that a considerable part of the expenditures planned for the year (mainly capital expenditures) are concentrated in the last months. This is related to payment of the work done in the implementation of infrastructure and investment projects in view of the construction season and the stages for implementation thereof. In addition to that the social expenditures, the maintenance costs, etc. are higher in the autumn and in the winter. Taking account of these factors, a considerable increase in the expenditures and shrinking of the just reported budget surplus are expected in the last months of the year.

Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:

As of October 2018, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 32,609.7 million (85.3% of the annual estimates), registering a growth by BGN 3,443.0 million as against the ten months of 2017. The growth in comparison to the previous year is mainly due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which have grown by BGN 3,063.0 million, or by 10.9%. There is also an increase in grant proceeds which grow by BGN 380.0 million.

As of April 2018, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget, amount to BGN 29,747.5 million, which accounts for 75.7% of the annual estimates. For comparison, CFP expenditures for the same period of 2017 amount to BGN 26,673.3 million. The nominal increase is due both to the higher national budget expenditures and to the increasing expenditures under the European Union fund accounts. The growth in national budget expenditures is mainly due to the higher amount of health insurance and social payments (a baseline effect for pension expenditures as a result of the increase in July 2017, the two-step increase in the minimum pension in 2017 as from July and October, as well as the new increase in pensions as from July 2018), the higher staff costs mostly resulting from the increase in the remuneration of pedagogical staff within the system of secondary education, etc., with capital expenditures under EU fund accounts mostly growing.

The part of Bulgaria’s contribution to the EU budget, as paid from the central budget as of 31.10.2018, amounts to BGN 909.6 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, i.e. Council Decision 2014/335/EU on the system of own resources of the European Union, Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 608/2014 of 26 May 2014 laying down implementing measures for the system of own resources of the European Union and Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 of 26 May 2014 on the methods and procedure for making available the traditional, VAT and GNI-based own resources and on the measures to meet cash requirements, as amended by Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2016/804 of 17 May 2016.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidate Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units as of October 2018 will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of November 2018.